HVAC replacement cost calculator.
What should a new system actually cost in 2026? Tell us whether you need heating, cooling, or both and enter your home size — we'll rank your options cheapest first, with the average US equipment, labor, and total cost across four efficiency tiers.
What drives the price — and the markup
Here's what most homeowners never see: the bare equipment is a small slice of what you pay. As a rule of thumb, the installed price runs about 2× the equipment cost in lower-cost areas and up to 3× in expensive metros. Labor typically adds up to roughly the cost of the unit itself, only about 10% of the job is materials and permits, and the rest is the installer's markup and overhead. On a system whose equipment costs $4,000, the final bill is commonly $8,000–$12,000.
That's why the calculator breaks every estimate into equipment, labor, materials, and installer markup — so you can see exactly where the money goes. Efficiency tier moves the equipment line (a top variable-speed unit costs roughly double builder-grade of the same size), and your area moves the markup. Prices are also elevated in 2025–26 by the federally mandated switch to A2L refrigerant (R-454B / R-32), up 10–20% versus 2023.
How we estimate
The calculator starts from your home's square footage and climate to estimate the system size in tons, then sets the bare equipment cost per ton at each efficiency tier from current 2025–26 pricing. From there it builds the installed total the way contractors actually price a job: labor ≈ the cost of the unit, materials ≈ 10% of the job, and an installer markup that scales with your area — landing the total at roughly 2× the equipment in low-cost regions up to 3× in the priciest metros.
These are planning estimates, not quotes. The single biggest lever you control is avoiding that markup — by getting multiple bids, or by going the DIY route on a ductless system where it's practical.
Sizing 101
A common rule of thumb for cooling is 20–30 BTU per square foot — about one ton (12,000 BTU) per 400–600 sq ft, with the higher end for hot, humid climates. Furnaces are sized by heating output, roughly 30–60 BTU per square foot depending on how cold your winters get. The calculator uses these climate-adjusted factors, then snaps to the nearest standard equipment size.
These are starting points, not a substitute for a Manual J load calculation, which accounts for insulation, windows, orientation, ceiling height, and air sealing. Any contractor sizing a system off square footage alone is guessing. If you're weighing brands first, see our best mini-split brands guide.
Best, Good, Okay, Poor — what the tiers mean
| Tier | Cooling (SEER2) | Furnace (AFUE) | Best for |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best | 20–24+ | 96–98% modulating | Lowest bills, longest life, resale |
| Good | 17–19 | 95% two-stage | Most homes — the value sweet spot |
| Okay | 15–16 | 90–92% | Tight budgets, milder climates |
| Poor | 13.4–14.3 | 80% single-stage | Lowest upfront price only |
A higher tier costs more today but pays back through lower energy bills and a longer service life. Ductless mini-splits are the exception: even entry-level units are inverter-driven and land in the high-SEER2 range, so the gap between tiers is smaller. Zone Air's DIY mini-splits run 23–24 SEER2 — the “Best” efficiency tier — while skipping contractor labor entirely.
Efficiency minimums by size and region
Since January 2023, every central system sold in the US has to meet a federal minimum efficiency rating (SEER2 for cooling, HSPF2 for heat-pump heating, AFUE for furnaces). What surprises most homeowners is that the AC minimum isn't one national number — it depends on where you live and, for larger units, on the system's capacity. Anything at or above 45,000 BTU/h (3.75 tons) is allowed a slightly lower minimum, because holding peak efficiency at large capacity takes disproportionately bigger coils and airflow.
| Equipment | Region / size | Federal minimum |
|---|---|---|
| Central AC | North (all sizes) | 13.4 SEER2 |
| Central AC | South, under 4 tons (<45k BTU) | 14.3 SEER2 |
| Central AC | South, 4–5 tons (≥45k BTU) | 13.8 SEER2 |
| Heat pump | All US, all sizes | 14.3 SEER2 · 7.5 HSPF2 |
| Gas furnace | All US | 80% AFUE |
The DOE's “South” region covers the Southeast and Southwest; the “North” covers the colder northern half of the country. The Southwest additionally enforces an EER2 minimum (peak-heat performance) on top of SEER2. Heat pumps are regulated as a single national standard — no regional or capacity split. This is why the calculator's entry-level (“Poor”) tier changes with your size and climate: it always reflects the lowest unit you could legally install for that combination.
The same physics caps the top end. Flagship variable-speed ACs reach 24–26 SEER2 in 2–3 ton sizes, but only about 20 SEER2 by 5 tons; 5-ton heat pumps top out around 17–19 SEER2. If you want the highest efficiency, smaller and right-sized beats big — another reason a Manual J load calculation matters before you buy. A pending DOE rule would raise the furnace minimum to 95% AFUE for units made on or after December 2028, though that change is currently in legal limbo.
When each system makes sense
- Central AC + furnace — you have ducts, gas service, and both units are aging out together.
- Central AC only — your furnace is newer and you just need cooling.
- Furnace only — your AC is fine but the furnace failed or is below 80% AFUE.
- Central heat pump — you want one efficient system for heating and cooling and are moving off gas.
- Ductless mini-split — no ducts, an addition or garage, room-by-room zoning, or you want a DIY install that skips labor.
Frequently asked questions
How much does it cost to replace an HVAC system in 2026?
Expect the installed price to land at roughly 2 times the bare equipment cost in lower-cost areas and up to 3 times in expensive metros. In practice that means a full central AC and gas furnace replacement runs about $10,000–$25,000, central AC only about $5,500–$12,000, a gas furnace about $7,000–$14,000, a ducted heat pump about $8,000–$17,000, and a ductless mini-split $3,000 (single DIY zone) to $16,000 (whole-home multi-zone, installed). Labor is usually about the cost of the unit, materials about 10%, and the remainder is installer markup and overhead.
What size HVAC system do I need for my home?
A rough rule is 20–30 BTU of cooling per square foot (1 ton per 400–600 sq ft), higher in hot, humid climates. A 1,800 sq ft mixed-climate home typically needs about 3 tons (36,000 BTU). Furnaces are sized 30–60 BTU per square foot of heating output by climate. These are estimates — a contractor should run a Manual J load calculation before sizing, since an oversized system short-cycles and an undersized one never keeps up.
What do the efficiency tiers (SEER2 and AFUE) mean?
SEER2 rates cooling efficiency: 13.4–14.3 is builder-grade (entry), 15–16 is standard, 17–19 is high efficiency, and 20–24+ is premium variable-speed. AFUE rates furnace efficiency: 80% is single-stage entry level, 90–95% is mid-to-high, and 96–98% modulating is top tier. Higher tiers cost more upfront but cut energy bills and last longer.
Is it cheaper to install a mini-split yourself?
Yes. Contractor labor is the single largest line item on a mini-split install. A pre-charged DIY mini-split like Zone Air ships with the refrigerant lines already charged and connected, so a homeowner can install it without an EPA license or vacuum pump — typically saving $3,000 or more versus a contractor install of an equivalent high-efficiency system.
Are these prices a quote?
No. These are national-average planning estimates. Your actual cost depends on your home, existing ductwork and electrical, permit fees, local labor rates, and the brand you choose. Get two or three local bids before committing.
Lower your install cost
Two levers cut the bottom line the most: trimming the labor portion and stacking rebates. A pre-charged Zone Air DIY mini-split removes contractor labor on the ductless route, and many states still fund heat-pump rebates in 2026 — check yours with the rebate lookup.
Not sure which route fits your home?
Our team can help you size a system, compare a DIY mini-split against a contractor install, and find the rebates you qualify for.